China may be forced to import over 50% of its cotton needs, as the cotton output is still failing to meet demand, and the gap has been widened to the extent that by the end of the 11th Five-Year Program period (2006-2010), according to China Cotton Association.

Chinese textile industry will be maintaining strong growth in the 11th Five-Year Program period. If the country's annual yarn output grows 7.5% in the period, by 2010, Chinese cotton consumption will top 14 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons or up 44% year on year.

The capacity of China's cotton producer to meet this spiraling demand is limited by such factors as the potential cultivated land area and water resources, Zhou said. Although China's cotton output has grown 5.3 per cent in 2000-2006, it is eclipsed by the 15.1 per cent growth in average annual consumption. As a result, China's cotton import has increased year by year.

In 2003-2005, China imported 7.6 million tons of cotton, equal to 45% of China's cotton output in the period. If China's cotton growing area stabilizes at 85 million mu (15 mu equals one hectare), with a per unit yield of 80 kg, the country's total output likely to hit the record level of 6.8 million tons in 2006-2010. However, even such growth will result in an annual shortfall of seven million tons.

China's yarn output reported an average annual growth of 16.9%, while textile and garments exports surge 17.2% in the 10th Five-Year Plan period (2000-2005).